Forecasting

My colleague attended a training and shared what he learned about weather forecasting with us. Some inspiring points are summarized as below:

1. Forecasters should continuously perform a careful diagnosis, looking for low-probability, but high impact possibility events. An action plan is always in mind to prepare for reacting quickly and properly when necessary.

2. Always look at all levels of the sounding. CAPE was strongly suggested as a reference of the atmospheric instability. It used the calculation of a large vertical extent of the atmosphere rather than other convective indices using a certain levels in calculation.

3. Any NWP forecast was just an opinion. It was not an opinion to represent all lives and all seeing. In encountering diversity of the model outputs, an "ensemble consensus" is always the most likely outcome.